The Queensland housing market is defying national trends, surging ahead while the rest of Australia's growth slows. But here's where it gets controversial: is this boom a blessing for homeowners or a barrier for aspiring buyers? Property data reveals a stark reality for 2026—Queensland's housing market is becoming increasingly expensive, even as price growth cools in major southern cities like Sydney and Melbourne. This divergence raises critical questions about affordability and accessibility.
Cotality Research Director Tim Lawless highlights the dual nature of this trend. "For current homeowners, this is fantastic news," he explains. "But for those trying to enter the market, the rapid rise in property values and the escalating costs are undeniably frustrating." Lawless points out that Brisbane, once a relatively affordable option, is now nearing the top of the unaffordability ladder. In December alone, Brisbane's property values jumped by 1.6%, equating to an average increase of nearly $16,000 per property—a staggering figure that underscores the challenges faced by first-time buyers.
And this is the part most people miss: while Brisbane's annual growth rate of 14.5% translates to an average increase of $131,000 over the year, it's the unit sector that's seeing the most rapid growth. This shift reflects a growing number of buyers turning to apartments as a more affordable alternative to houses. Lawless notes, "We're also witnessing increased investment in south-east Queensland, particularly in the apartment sector, where investors tend to be more active." However, the overall housing market remains undersupplied, with limited new construction exacerbating the issue.
In Greater Brisbane, certain suburbs have seen remarkable growth. Springwood-Kingston leads the pack with a 19.5% increase, followed by areas like Sunnybank, Nathan, and Chermside. Regionally, areas west of Brisbane, such as the Granite Belt, Toowoomba, and the Darling Downs, have seen housing values rise between 18% and 20% over the past year. Even markets like Charters Towers, Central Highlands, and Maryborough have experienced strong growth, driven by factors like affordability, economic diversity, and access to essential amenities.
Here’s the controversial question: Is this growth sustainable? Lawless predicts a slowdown in 2026, citing potential interest rate hikes that could temper the market. However, he doesn’t foresee a decline in property values due to persistent low supply and high population growth, particularly from interstate migration. "While the growth is unsustainable in the long term, we’re already seeing early signs of momentum easing," Lawless observes. "The rate of growth remains high but is gradually slowing."
These trends aren’t just affecting buyers—renters are feeling the pinch too. Brisbane’s rental market is tightening, with rents rising 6.2% over the past year, outpacing the national average of 5.2%. Over the past five years, substantial rent increases have led to more group and multi-generational households. Vacancy rates are at historic lows, with Brisbane’s overall rate at 2.1% and the apartment market at a mere 1.4%. "A healthy vacancy rate is closer to 3.5%," Lawless notes, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand.
What do you think? Is Queensland’s housing boom a positive sign of economic growth, or is it creating an affordability crisis? Share your thoughts in the comments—we’d love to hear your perspective on this pressing issue.
